Ether/Vapor

Sunday.

I was motoring, along 465 on a grey day, waiting for snow. There were billboards, everywhere billboards, and signs for gas stops, truck stops, the cheap, plentiful, and ubiquitous food. And the mood that's been hanging over my head fell in the way it's been threatening to do for some time.

Thunk.

It's all so insubstantial, isn't it? A culture, a society, a way of life that's built on and of the disposable, the transient, the impermanent. And somewhere between the sign for Concentra Urgent Care (Jennifer chopped more than her veggies. Now she's at Concentra.) and the sign for Chik-Fil-A (Two cows in firemen costumes, appearing to paint “Try Spicee Chikkun”), it occurred to me that this world, or at least here, is built on vapor. You could pass a hand through it. You could see its breath on a mirror, you could see its reflection, but don't try to see the object reflected, the object that's behind the respiration– it was built of plastic and neon in 20 minutes of undervalued labor. It will be torn down in less.

It's been coming for awhile, this sense of inescapable, perpetual insubstantiality; the sense that nothing is solid. People's houses are under water, “security” has seemed to mean only rent-a-cops in doorways and not a meaningful value actual people can acquire for their lives. The murals painted by well-meaning and middle class volunteers on bridges and buildings in poor neighborhoods where a solid investment in infrastructure would have real meaning but, what the hell, paint is cheaper, so we'll go with that. The budgets built on Continuing Resolutions and not actual, annual, literal budgets of needs and income, black columns and red. The way relationships, profits, bills, earnings, livelihoods, health, stability all seem to hang on the slenderest of filaments, easily snipped by poor luck, a moment of insufficient judgment, or a vehicle's mercurial belt.

The way we believe in “middle class values” and tout terms of hard work and respect and decency, and for all our ideals, for all the weight of our history, for all our vaunted beliefs, and despite a very great deal of hard work and capital, at the end of the day, we're stuck in a world of minute-to-minute, a tango of plastic and short-attention spans.

So that was the Sunday drive. That was, is, the mood of the moment: this sense that everything in the internal and external world is TBA: to be announced, written in pencil but never ink, tentative, impermanent. Ether, vapor, and air. But not much else, no matter our best intentions.

Other people have hit on it before, of course, you get Shakespeare's mortal coils and “such things as dreams; ” you get the literary castles of air; you get the Beckett and the Kundera, the “Incredible Lightness of Being.”

And even for the fact that our kin has been there before, written about it before, you can't help but feel they weren't talking about mannequins of cows spray painting the benefits of inexpensive, readily available chicken. They weren't talking about state monuments that were built of drywall and convenience: monuments to decades not centuries. They were talking about something basic, but they were not talking about us– because we're, well, not that.

Which is the mood that has kept going, of course; after all, I'm not a dog capable of easily relenting its bone.

And so long as we live the way we live, all slab construction, paint, and short-term planning, with jobs that don't satisfy and work that has lost its virtue and its rewards, with a culture that can celebrate “Honey Boo Boo” but not remember that just because a word has an “s” doesn't mean it necessarily merits an apostrophe; so long as we go on building everything of vapor, full steam ahead, planning for nothing, or (in political banalities) kicking the can down the road, I think the mood will continue. Hamlet getting trumped by his ghosts. A topsy-turvy world. An insubstantial world. In some senses, an immaterial world.

Of course, I will say, every now and again you see a bird stick its little feathery head out of the recesses of a neon “B.” Or you'll hear a little kid squeal with joy at a Tonka truck sliding across a table. And you'll think Now, that. That is real. There is actually something there. Something solid. Something real.

And you'll be grateful. But that, like everything else, will not last. Because, apparently, for this moment, nothing really ever does.

But moments pass, too. Vapor, themselves, incorporeal, mercurial, impermanent, and temporary. Vapor, electrodes, synaptic connections that connect and evaporate, connect again. Insubstantial. Immaterial. What's next?

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Six Days From Sunday

Sunday, February 10, 2013:

Indiana teacher Diana Medley made herself mighty unpopular with mostly everyone when she said that gay kids have no purpose in life. Just goes to show Sunday’s a day of rest but not from unparalleled intolerant asshattery or terrifically bad press, depending on your point of view. Now, granted, teachers are private citizens and they have the same rights to freedom of thought and expression as the rest of us. But they also have the same responsibilities to face the consequences of those thoughts when they’re blathered into a live microphone wielded by a reporter. Unsurprisingly, her words have whipped up calls for Medley’s immediate and involuntary unemployment from her position as a special needs educator with the Northeast School Corporation in Sullivan County, Indiana (see also: Facebook page titled “Fire Diana Medley”).

So far the superintendent of the school corporation, Mark Baker, has expressed that he’s dismayed by Medley’s comments but no action has yet been taken to remove Medley from the classroom.

Perhaps in next week’s news, Ms. Medley will self-deport.

Monday, February 11, 2013: Edutainment!

The History Channel’s crack research team misspelled “seceded.” The misspelling looked humorously similar to “succeed,” which is probably not the word association you want evoked when you’re the History Channel and you’ve just failed on the one tiny bit of mild information about, you know, history, that you were trying to throw into your reality series.

In other news, Pope Benedict XVI announced he was resigning the throne of St. Peter at the end of February, prompting amusing bon mots like “guess he didn’t like the car” and “didn’t know the pope could give up being pope for Lent.” I love Twitter.

Related and interesting: Atlantic Monthly’s piece about the mass media at the time of last papal resignation in 1415.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013: Holiday, Cubed. Just Add Water.

Lincoln’s Birthday:

Mosaic Abe. Located in the Indiana Government Center, North Building, Indianapolis, Indiana. Detail of mosaic titled “Here I Grew Up”: the mosaic text reads “Abraham Lincoln, our finest contribution to civilization.”
Indiana also contributed the first canned tomato juice to civilization (Kokomo, City of Firsts; though the juice itself was first served at the French Lick Springs resort). Not really relevant to Lincoln’s Birthday, but little known fake-fact: the muralist almost chose that as Indiana’s finest contribution.

Mardi Gras: Some people ate, drank, and made merry. And then gave it up temporarily.

State of the Union (SOTU day is a holiday. You just read that online, which means it’s true.): President Barack Obama delivered his first State of the Union of his second term in a chamber chock-full of bipartisan bonhomie (this evident by the sartorial choices of members of Congress: lavender ties, pale blue shirts with red ties, or non-partisan ties in orange (my personal favorite and yet another reason to like Senator Chuck Schumer, D-NY), aqua, mint, and rose.

The full text of the speech is here. Wonkblog’s crack footnoting of the speech is here.

The 2013 SOTU speech, in my opinion, was Obama’s best yet, but then, it did contain about 80 percent of my personal policy wish-list. (Money for science and health research, lifting the minimum wage, attention to climate change, reforming the legal immigration system as well as addressing illegal immigration, repairing infrastructure, tax reform, Medicare/Medicaid reform done by changing payments instead of cutting benefits, etc.) It was lighter on foreign policy and aid for veterans than I would have liked, but I’m told that Ordinary Americans have short attention spans. The speech was an hour long and had greater density than a kitchen-table sized asteroid smacking into Russia (spoiler alert: that happened on Friday), so I’ll give it a pass for its absences since the content was otherwise so full.

On the topic of Ordinary Americans and the SOTU, however, a big, whomping “shame on you” to Chuck Todd, who tweeted this as the speech began: “@chucktodd: Am surprised POTUS is leading with deficit and sequester: if his audience is outside DC, then why not lead w/min.wage and or pre-k?” I tweeted back “@myrailey: @chucktodd Because those of us outside DC are grown-ups, too.”

Oh, Chuck Todd, if you keep up with condescending towards those of us outside the beltway, I’m going to be forced to remove you from the all-important List of Smart People at My Dream Dinner Party. And you don’t want that to happen, do you?

Just Add Water:

Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) gave the official Republican response to the State of the Union. By which I actually mean “Marco Rubio drank some water.” This was followed in turn by the most exhilarating night of Twitter ever: “Somewhere in Louisiana, Bobby Jindal is laughing his ass off.” “Stay thirsty, my friends.” “He just went for the kiddie bottle of Poland Springs. I’m done.” “Looks like a drinking problem.” “Watergate.”

I love Twitter.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013:

Marco Rubio, in a lemonade moment of genius, decided to invest in water bottles.

Thursday, February 14, 2013:

Republicans in the Senate filibustered the confirmation of Chuck Hagel for secretary of defense. This was done partly to show that Tuesday night’s neckties were simply Tuesday night’s neckties and Symbolism is Dead.

Many in the GOP admit that Hagel will probably get through the confirmation process anyway once the Senators return from their 10 day recess. So the alternate headline for the filibuster? “Congress Wastes Time Just Because it Can.” (Oh, wait, not a headline: it’s that whole “Dog Bites Man” vs. “Man Bites Dog” thing.)
Valentine’s Day: Ya Gotta Have Heart.
Friday, February 15, 2013:
A meteorite exploded over Russia. According to CNN, it was the size of “a large kitchen table.” A dinette-sized chunk of rock and gas from outer space would have been less eventful.
And asteroid 2012 DA14 did a drive-by of the planet but, happily, did not stop to see if we were home.
Other things happened today, of course (Oh, my god, those kids.) but I think I’ll leave it with the space rocks and a recommendation for a quirky, smart, and poignant movie about a space rock: watch Seeking a Friend for the End of the World. It’s a good movie and it’ll help you release your tears about fifth-graders in murder plots, injured Russians, and all the world’s many other ills. Even when nasty and inexplicable, the world is still something I’d rather have than not.

American Foreign Policy after Iraq and Afghanistan: Notes from Lee Hamilton’s March 1st Lecture

The following are my notes from the 2012 Israel Lecture in U.S. Public Policy given by Lee Hamilton at the Lilly Performance Hall, University of Indianapolis, March 1, 2012. I tweeted afterwards that Mr. Hamilton was brilliant and surprisingly, wonderfully funny. The humor won’t come through here, but hopefully the gist of his speech will. Happy Reading.

American Foreign Policy after Iraq and Afghanistan, The Honorable Lee H. Hamilton

There are four central realities facing the U.S. as era of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan end.

(1.) Preeminence of American Power: The U.S. is still the central player on the global stage; it is the only one with a global reach, but it is hobbled by obstacles and it is not an unchallenged power. (2.) Shifting Alignment/Alliances of Great Powers and the Rise of New Powers: New nature of international relationships is defined by fluidity, both in identity of greater/lesser powers and the dynamics between them. Russia, China, India, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia are waxing while the old European power is facing political, financial, and social decline. Europe and the West are weakening; Asia rising. The balance is now multi-polar but eastward looking. President Obama recently said “Can’t put U.S. back to work unless Asia is successful.” (Note that among multi-polar world, the balance could really rest with a bipolar world: U.S. and China.) The U.S. for now is still the preeminent power, but the lead is shrinking. (3.) Globalization: The megatrend is globalization, our “hyperconnectedness” is the single most important reality; refers to economics/trade/currency and information. Interdependence. Powerful tool for prosperity but not always good for progressive goals and is often met with resistance in U.S.(outsourcing and employment rates; low growth). Too often, globalization not global: there are winners and losers. Raises living standards but unevenly and causes disruptions and downturns. Double-edged sword: both good and bad; opportunities and crises alike. (4.) Turmoil and Insecurity: Economic, political, environmental, and health. Example of ca. 10 million deaths in Africa over past couple years due to these forces. (Why wasn’t it on the front page of the paper, the evening news?) Enormous ramifications for all of us, whether or not we are paying attention. Recent Pentagon briefing included key phrase “in a period of persistent conflict.” Chaos and conflict are and will be constant realities.

The seven key challenges to the U.S. in this era are:

(1.) Nuclear Proliferation: Nuclear attack not the most likely risk to us, but the most consequential and very unpredictable (N. Korea, Iran, and ???) We have sanctions and certain safeguards but risk is still there; must curb growth of arms and armsholders. (2.) Managing Global Economy: Characterized by low/declining growth and imbalances generated by trade deficits and poverty. Fragility is the challenge. Somehow we must support responsible globalization: one which includes and manages growth while protecting the weak and preventing inflation. Which model will the world use to achieve growth. The U.S. is confident in market capitalism but the world is not convinced (e.g. China’s growth has been 9-10% annually for past decade while ours has been struggling to find 1-2%). China’s growth will slow, but still, many in the world will not take our word for it that our way/the free market is most efficacious. The preferred model is not obvious and this debate will be a bigger one in world affairs than the U.S. realizes. (As a sidenote, the U.S. cannot be a world leader, preeminent if it fails to get its economy in order. The U.S. must solve its shortage of demand/lack of growth and its debt. Problem is: solving one is bad for the other.) (3.) Energy: How do we power the future? This is the great failure of U.S. policy in the past 3-4 decades, our failure to reduce our need for foreign oil. While it’s improving, it’s still too far from being resolved. “We’re very slow learners.” Favors an all of the above approach, expanding supply, efficiency, and alternative sources. Can’t continue to be slow on this. (4.) China: Most important bilateral relationship in the world, between China and U.S; China is our only peer/competitor. Could become formidable problem or rival. The U.S. cannot solve any of the major problems without Chinese cooperation. Dismisses view that China is belligerent towards us but acknowledges their wariness and self-protectiveness. Must keep dialogues and diplomacy with China open and be persistent with communication. Many of the big foreign policy questions in years ahead involve China. (5.) Cybersecurity: Key challenge because critical infrastructure (financial, electrical, water) is online and much of it is privatized. Companies do not have capacity to fend off a cyberattack. Federal government might, but companies rightfully have concerns about government involvement in their businesses. Need better communication between public/private. The risk is great (potential damage + speed of attack + anonymity of and difficulty tracing/apprehending attackers. Attackers can be a teen with a laptop or a government. Damage would be difficult to manage either way.) (6.) Terrorism: This is not an existential threat, but it does still exist. (7.) Turmoil: Toughest question facing us on this front is asking when we intervene (e.g. Syria). “You’ve got to be careful when you start supplying arms to people.” E.g. Afghanistan, only to have our gifted weapons turned against us by those we had previously armed. Unintended consequences of intervention can be devastating and long-lived. How do we/the President decide when to intervene and in which way?

Conclusion: With these realities and challenges in mind, should U.S. be optimistic or pessimistic about foreign relations in the future? “What difference does it make?” More important than what we think about the future is what we do. Best thing citizens can do is to make our own spots better and stronger. The U.S. is always striving. Good outcomes are possible but not inevitable. Could be prosperity or it could be chaos; but either way, American leadership will be needed.

(There were three questions asked in the discussion following the lecture. My intention is to post the notes from those in the Comments for this post soonish.)

All Told: 10 November 2011

All Told, Citizen Cain Edition

“A poet once said “Life can be a challenge/Life can seem impossible/ But it’s never easy when there’s so much on the line.” Herman Cain, quoting the theme song from Pokémon, the Movie in a GOP presidential debate—and doing so without any hipster irony, thank you very much.

“I am the Koch brothers’ brother from another mother. Yes!” Herman Cain, quoting Rush Hour 3, and again sans irony. (More on the Koch brothers here and here.)

“To not know that…China…has nuclear weapons and has had them since the 60s is really a problem. It means you haven’t read the newspapers for half a century.” Chris Matthews on Meet the Press, regarding Herman Cain’s insistence that China is trying to acquire nuclear weapons, something they’ve had since 1964.

And, the best take on Candidate Cain—Sim City and Pokemon inclusive—is here, on video from The Rachel Maddow Show.

All Told, Random Politickery Edition

“We went to the company and we said ‘Look, you can’t have any illegals working on our property. I’m running for office, for Pete’s sake. I can’t have illegals.’” Mitt Romney, at the GOP debate, 18 October, 2011.

“My constituents are not in Washington. They’re out across America.” Jim DeMint, senator from South Carolina, whose constituents of course are neither in Washington or across America—they’re in South Carolina.

“Sorry. Oops.” Governor Rick Perry, “stepping in” the abyss of forgetfulness at the CNBC debate Wednesday night, 9 November. (Yeah, here’s the video… you know you wanna look.)

Related: The “I just can’t get enough of this” interlude: Governor Perry in New Hampshire, 28 October 2011.

All Told, Intervention, Iraq, and Afghanistan Edition

“…nobody [commanders on the ground] uses the word ‘victory’ or ‘success’ anymore. The new phrase you keep hearing is ‘Afghan Good Enough.’” Thom Shanker

“Nobody wants peace because everybody profits from war.” Nir Rosen

“…there are not solutions that you can dream up in Washington, there are no universal structures or lessons which you can apply from Bosnia to Afghanistan…Context is everything…what you need above all are people who understand the language, understand the culture, have spent 20-30 years working in these communities.” Rory Stewart

[Iraq] “could have been a place that participated in the Arab Spring and I think it would have been probably much more positive if we’d come in support of that rather than trying to impose that.” Rory Stewart

“And if we actually plant our flag more forthrightly in principles rather than pragmatic security, the world will listen.” Simon Schama

On the Past Ten Years and Leaving Iraq

Hellenistic Bronze; Seated Boxer. Rome, Italy. Ca. 100-50 BCE. (Photo: museumsyndicate.com)Sunt lacrimae rerum et mentem mortalia tangent.

“These are the tears of things, and the stuff of our mortality cuts us to the heart.”

-Virgil

It has been a decade since the towers fell on 9/11 and the U.S. began its war on terror by entering Afghanistan.

A strange, sad decade of a so-far bewildering and uncertain century: ten continued strange years later, with domestic and economic quagmires that seem to match the foreign policy perpetual nightmares, we remember back. We entered the 2000s amped up over Y2K, which was a punchline well before the second day of 2000. And then, the year, the years, turned strange: the bombing of the Cole, the Gore/Bush election and month without an election result, and then 9/11. We didn’t see it coming. And we’ve been trying to make sense of it ever since.

And our ways of making sense of it seemed strange and bewildering, too. Magnetic U.S.A. ribbons on the vehicles of America, the Patriot Act and questions of security vs. rights. Freedom fries. Color-coded terror alerts. The Department of Homeland Security. Airport body searches, shoe-bomb plots and plastic explosives in underpants and a general impression that we should be watchful, suspicious, even, because whatever 9/11 was, it wasn’t done and there would be more to come.

But most of all, there was war. First in Afghanistan, then in Iraq. And now we strike in Yemen, Somalia, Pakistan. And with this global War on Terror came things I would never have imagined my country would do, questions I never imagined I would have about liberty, morality– identity, even. Guantánamo Bay prisoners of war or “war” that we can neither try nor release and Abu Ghraib. Torture, rendition, the term “black site.” The use of contractors and mercenaries like Xe/Blackwater. So many U.S. troops repeatedly deployed, injured, and killed. So many wounded, terrified, and dead civilians in countries whose histories are longer and sadder than our own. Predator drones. Occupation and destruction. And the unparalleled discomfort at all of it, perhaps most recently signified by the deaths of Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki, an American citizen, without trial but with the certainty that these were probably “good” things. But still, we, I, believed our principles mattered more than our safety; that they were worth sacrificing for. Besides, the risk, the potential price was too great. And so it has been this decade: rights and wrongs intermingled and a vague sense that we were doing our sorry best but the world had gone mad and there was pain all around. Life has always been ambiguous and complex, but the decade of war following 9/11 has made it viscerally so.

Ten years of war without American precedent. And we are finally, finally leaving Iraq. I would like to say that this is cause for unmitigated celebration. I was opposed to that invasion from the first garbled whispers of it. With every act of bravery in pursuit of an unspecified and uncertain goal, with every casualty, with every news cycle and power outage and civil unrest and coyly-named strategy, I supported the troops and hoped to god that something good might come to the Iraqi people. And I believed none of it. Iraq was euphemistically mixed in with the spectre of terrorism, the global game of Whack-a-Mole, the many-headed hydra. And all I have been able to see is, no matter how well intentioned, we were part of that hydra, too. I think we still are.

Saddam Hussein is gone. We helped that. Perhaps that saved lives. We stabilized (temporarily?) a violent war-torn country. But I don’t feel solace in any of those things. It is impossible to tell how many of the “problems solved” were caused by our actions (“war-torn Iraq” but didn’t we do a fair bit of that tearing?); impossible not to feel that for every good built, something else was destroyed. We invaded a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, nothing to do with our immediate security. And we probably did some good along the way but what do we owe them for the well-intentioned and misguided bad? Electricity, clean water, stability, security, reparations?

Yes. But that’s not in our capabilities to provide, if we’re honest. So, we leave, which seems to me the next best thing to do since we cannot realistically leave with an Iraq that was better than we found it or an Iraq that is at some imaginary baseline of what it would have been had we never went in there in the first place. So we leave, I hope, with some honesty and integrity, some humility and apologies.

Already there are very loud voices in the political realm decrying our departure from Iraq on the basis of unrealized victory. Representative Michele Bachmann (R-MN) this week even pulled out the “Iraq owes us repayment” card at the CNN GOP nomination debate.

There was never the chance of victory in this. Historian Simon Schama once likened the Iraq invasion to the U.S. taking a hammer to a bead of mercury. And that seems pretty much right to me: no victory in that action, just a million beads of toxicity to stop before it harms too many people and an act that can never really be undone, only accommodated, mitigated, apologized for, and learned from. And, to take a different view, there is to me a small nobility, a small and unconventional victory in finally standing up honestly and saying good-bye to one part of this madness by leaving Iraq.

I’ve tried before to express my feelings about these wars, the soldiers, the events of the past decade. It’s always excruciating. It always falls short. It seems, in fact, the stupidest act in the face of things; an insult to the bravery of our soldiers and diplomats and the memory of all the lost and injured. I feel the attempts to express thoughts about all these things cheapens and degrades the realities of all those closer to 9/11, to the wars, to life and death in the Middle East. It feels, in fact, like cowardice to write amateurishly instead of getting my hands dirty by making an actual sacrifice and taking a real action. Because no matter how I feel about the wars or what we’ve done to respond to terrorism, I am an American so I’m responsible too. And prissy little blog posts and a decade of morose contemplation don’t help satisfy that responsibility.

Still, I write it anyway. It’s my response to the endless asides in the media and political worlds that say the American people haven’t been involved in the wars and don’t pay attention to them after all this time and/or during economic troubles. I disagree. I think the American people are better than that. I think they’ve been aware. I think they’ve felt helpless and guilty and sometimes scared. And maybe that’s just me. The U.S., my country, went to war and I did nothing. But I did pay attention. And, even though the government didn’t really pay for it (yet) and the public wasn’t asked to, I sent a small donation to the U.S. Treasury to acknowledge that we should have been asked, that it’s part of all of our debt, that the responsibilities we have to our soldiers will cost money, and that even wars I never wanted need to be paid for when they’re rightly or wrongly fought in my name.

A small act like that is insignificant, of course, and just as cheap as blogging about disaster. But we’ve passed the decade anniversaries of 9/11 and Afghanistan. We’re leaving Iraq. I dropped a token to help pay for it, which is well-intentioned but probably meaningless. Still, it’s what I’ve got, I guess. And until I can find a better way to make sense from the senseless, I’ll have to go with that.

Here’s to a better decade for all of us.

Time Will Eat Us: This is Not a Pipe

Listening to the podcast of Fareed Zakaria GPS (CNN) from last weekend, I heard economist Ken Rogoff explain that we could predict things about the economy because “We have centuries of examples.” It’s a meme that’s been popular in the past decade (probably forever): that whole “those who don’t learn the lessons of the past are doomed to repeat them” thing; that whole grand belief system in the infallibility of history to repeat, wash, rinse, repeat.

History: that map that we must study in order to conquer.

Only. What if history is not a timeline we can follow?[1] What if history doesn’t repeat but only rhymes, as Mark Twain quipped? What if history is the ourobouros, the snake eating its own tail? A circle, spinning. A cycle? And how do we know the course of the cycle? We can only assume from 6000-ish years of people living sorta like us. We can only assume from an historical record that leaves more gaps and unknowns than quantifiable certainties. And what if we’ve been poor at reckoning the cycle?

Then, what if it is not a cycle? What if it’s a grid that stretches out into infinite space or infinite directions? Or what if each moment splits time and history into separate fragments and directions? What if it isn’t only one thing? Who are we to think we’ve got it figured out? Seems to me reality offers more evidence to the contrary than in support of us mastering the universe.

Let’s just go with the past decade: I have heard the world at large get all Miss Havisham-y about Iraq, Afghanistan, the economy. I have watched the events unfolding and frequently thought we were getting things wrong by assuming we had the pattern figured out: Iraq/Af/Pak/Iran/Al Qaeda were all variants of the Peloponnesian War, the Crusades, Vietnam, the first Gulf War. The economic recession of the early 2000s mimicked the recession of the early 80’s (go shopping and perk up, America!) and the Great Recession could be handled like the Great Depression Lite because it is/was the Great Depression Lite.

And for a decade, all I could picture was that Dickensian lady in her yellowed wedding gown looking at a moldy cake. The two thoughts were: What if we are wrong? And: No, this feels different, this looks different, this is looking to me (and I am admittedly amateur hour) like a Shift, a New Thing, a New World in the making—one of those restructurings that happen and change everything we know into Something Else. And we’re living in the transition from what was to what will be.

Thus, the worst possible thing we could do, if that last is the case, is to think America is “the greatest civilization the world has ever known. The strongest economy the world has or has had”[2] and to believe—and act upon—the assumption that the U.S. sprang from the earth to dominate it and thus cannot possibly fail. (We’re exceptional, after all, and we’ll keep shouting about our superpoweriness while we stand on the rubble of what used to be streets, bridges and public works as the impoverished and diseased remnants of the population look on if we’re not careful.) There’s surely a peril in the strongly held conviction that “as is” equals “as ever” just because we’ve studied our history and the case is closed. “[The] assumption is that history is over. You know, we are very sloppy here. We don’t have a fixed identity.”[3]

Francisco Goya, "Saturn (Kronos) Devouring His Son," 1820-23. Museo del Prado, Madrid.

So when I hear the expression of “history repeats itself” in the face of a world that itself faces man-made climate change, the unintended consequences of 6.94 billion people living on it,[4] a changing global economy, geography, and power structure (multi-polar, multi-polar, multi-polar!), I worry that if we, the U.S., doesn’t handle this smartly and listen more than we speak, metaphorically, then the events of History and Time—or our interpretation of them– will devour us alive.[5]

After all, as Simon Schama has pointed out, history “is definitely not in the thumb-sucking business.” It means “inquiry,” not “story,” and it, as he says, keeps us awake at night. It isn’t a predictive map or a “geneology of feeling wonderful about who we are now…[it is not] the furniture polish of antiques.”

But whether so many of the chatterati (and politicians) are right and everything now is clear and fits into an historical pattern or whether I am right and this could be something different, my position is: We just can’t know. We are uncertain and should proceed with caution. We should not be certain about our certainties, because it’s entirely possible that something can look like a duck, quack like a duck, walk like a duck and not be a duck. (Video of ducks, which is not the same thing as actually being ducks.)

Rene Magritte, "La Trahison des Images," 1929. Los Angeles County Museum of Art

Or, as Magritte painted it in The Treachery of Images: Ceci n’est pas une pipe. “This is not a pipe.” It’s a representation of a pipe. (And right now, you’re not looking at a pipe or even a representation of a pipe. You’re looking at a pixilated representation of a representation of a pipe. Put a mirror up to it if you really want to play recursive mind games with yourself.)

And so it is with history and time and our place in both. Sometimes we don’t see what we are so sure we are seeing. Sometimes the smartest answer in the world is “I don’t know.” This is not a pipe.


[1] “My own suspicion is that history is not symmetrical. And that unfortunately things don’t necessarily go down…the same arc they came up on.” James Howard Kunstler
[2] Senator Mike Lee (R-UT)
[3] Patrick Geary
[4] U.S. Census Bureau estimate as of July 2011
[5] The link to the Goya painting and the same opinion expressed by Teofilo Ruiz in a lecture at Stanford: “The Terror of History,” November 4, 2010.

Messy Random Week in Review: Rapture Edition

A Messy Random Post About the Past Messy Week-ish

Saturday. Well, at least the Rapture didn’t happen on May 21 as a certain Mr. Camping predicted. If this disappoints you, the beginning of the end of the world has been penciled in for October 21. Mark your calendars.

Sunday. Residents in Joplin, Missouri, however, may be forgiven for thinking the end of the world may have begun on May 22 as a tornado ravaged the city. “Surgeons were in the middle of operating when the lights went out and they had to finish surgery with flashlights.” (Jennifer Moore, St. John’s Regional Medical Center, PBS NewsHour.) Hospitals, schools, businesses and homes were destroyed in an EF-5 tornado, the deadliest since modern record-keeping began in the U.S. in 1950. Tornadoes continued throughout the week, affecting Minneapolis, Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Indiana.

Monday. And in other global cataclysm news, the Grimsvotn volcano in Iceland erupted on May 23, blinding sheep, discoloring swan plumage, toying with Icelandic farms, and grounding flights throughout Europe. On the bright side, the heavier ash of the Grimsvotn volcano meant that the damage wouldn’t come close to the nearly 1.7 billion dollar cost to the airline industry of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcano.

Tuesday. During the president’s European visit, he met the Queen and the Royal Newlyweds before addressing both houses of Parliament at Westminster Hall. “I am told that the last three speakers here have been the Pope, Her Majesty the Queen, and Nelson Mandela, which is either a very high bar or the beginning of a very funny joke.”

Also on Tuesday, Democratic candidate Kathy Hochul won the special election in New York’s historically True Red Conservative District 26  to replace the Craig’s-Listed and Visibly Shirtless Former Congressman Christopher Lee. The victory was tied to her opposition to the Paul Ryan budget plan and its taxidermic approach to Medicare reform. The victory is regarded as a bellwether for the 2012 general election; it is unknown if the RNC is viewing it in biblical, apocalyptic, and/or prophetic terms. Maybe if the election had been held last Saturday…

Wednesday. Chrysler paid back 7.6 billion dollars in loans to the U.S. and Canadian governments with interest. The United States still owns more than 6% of the reinvigorated-ish company.

Wednesday was also the day of the Apotheosis of Oprah, as she ascended to the heavens, leaving behind her namesake 25-year old TV show. She did not disclose the date of her Second Coming (no man shall know the date nor time) nor the number of Very Happy Academics who will receive doctorates based on their theses: “The Effect of Oprah in a Post-Feminist, Post-Racial, and Post-Modern America” and “Oprah as American Export: Global Television and Soft Power.” And similar. (Ahhh, academia.)

And, Presuming the World Doesn’t End on 21 October 2011 and We Still Have to Elect a President…

With Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels formally announcing his non-candidacy, Tim Pawlenty formally entered the race, declaring “If we want a  new and better direction, we’re going to need a new and better president.” And if Pawlenty doesn’t work as “new and better,” Texas Governor Rick Perry says he’s “going to think about” running: “I think about a lot of things.” Including secession, but who will remember that when he’s surrounded by red, white, and blue balloons in Iowa?  Of course, the field still includes Pizza Guy Cain, monumentally uninspiring Romney, “creative but unstable thinker” and verbally-error-prone Gingrich, Similarly Error-Prone Santorum, and nominally Republican Libertarian Ron Paul.

If these choices don’t work for voters, Trump’s on-again/off-again relationship with The Idea of Running is rumored to be on again—possibly. Also, on the “possibly” front: Palin and Giuliani. And, all-but-declared: Bachmann.

My money at the moment is on Jon “Thanks for the Ambassadorship to China But I’d Rather Have Your Job” Huntsman. As E.J. Dionne pointed out, if Huntsman runs, the GOP chances could be like Wagner’s music: “better than it sounds.”

But Most Importantly

It’s Memorial Day. One of the people I hold dearest in this world has a firm and often-expressed belief that a man in uniform should never have to buy his own beer. And said person buys a pint for any service member he comes across like it’s a religious practice. Which, in many ways, it is.

Thank a veteran today. Thank them every time you meet one. And keep them in your thoughts.

God bless those that have served our country and serve it still. Bless their families. Bless their memories.

We haven’t forgotten. I hope we never do. It would be the end of the world.

Excerpt for Arbor Day: Lester R. Brown

“An analysis of the value of planting trees on the streets and in the parks of five western U.S. cities—from Cheyenne in Wyoming to Berkeley in California—concluded that for every $1 spent on planting and caring for trees, the benefits to the community exceeded $2. A mature tree canopy in a city shades buildings and can reduce air temperatures by 5–10 degrees Fahrenheit, thus reducing the energy needed for air conditioning. In cities with severe winters like Cheyenne, the reduction of winter wind speed by evergreen trees cuts heating costs. Real estate values on tree-lined streets are typically 3–6 percent higher than where there are few or no trees.”

Brown, Lester R. Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing To Save Civilization

By the Numbers: Random Ten Edition

1 Ton of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere for every ton of gypsum and cement produced. (IPCC)

6 NATO member countries, out of 28, participating in air strikes in Libya. (PBS NewsHour)

10 Gallons of water per hour used to power the average LCD television by natural gas or coal. (Charles Fishman; NPR)

14 Percent of U.S. military that is female. (Associated Press)

25 Percent of global prison population represented by U.S. inmates. The U.S. has only 5% of the world’s population. (PBS NewsHour)

400 Top holders of wealth in U.S., who earn more than the bottom 150 million combined. (Forbes, NPR)

1,200 Miles traveled by the average food item from origin to your plate. (Indianapolis Star)

8,800 Cost, in U.S. dollars, to own and maintain a vehicle in 2011. (AAA)

204,000 Cost, in U.S. dollars, to raise a child. (USDA)

27,500,000 People displaced by conflict and violence in their home country in 2010, the highest number in a decade. (Internal Displacement Monitoring Center)

Button Up Your Over-Quote

“We talked about nuclear power. Well, it has to be safe, environment, and blah, blah, blah.” John McCain

“If they’d just stopped shooting, we would have escorted the pilot to safety. We were just trying to have a celebration for him.” One of the five Libyan civilians injured in Benghazi when the rescue team opened fire on them while recovering an American pilot from the downed F-15, as reported by Martin Geissler.

“These rebels are…They’re divided into two groups. There’re the volunteers and these rebels have really no military experience, very little sophistication, very little education, a lot of bravado. But when the actual fighting happens, most of them run away. We were with rebels today who didn’t know how to load their weapons. They were dropping rounds and ammunition on the ground. A lot of them are fighting for weird conspiracy theories. I would say one in five of the rebels told me today that they’re fighting because they think Gadhafi is Jewish…The other group of the rebels is people, units that have defected from Gadhafi’s army.” Richard Engel

“It may be no use for Washington to proselytize for democracy in the Arab world, but passive acceptance of mafia states is not a long-term option either.” Babak Dehghanpisheh and Christopher Dickey

“Nobody wants to be the war president. I want to be the peace president.” George W. Bush

“Is it a fact, or have I dreamt it, that, by means of electricity, the world of matter has become a great nerve vibrating thousands of miles in a breathless point of time? Rather, the round globe is a vast head, a brain instinct with intelligence, or shall we say it is itself a thought, nothing but thought, and no longer the substance which we deemed it.” Nathaniel Hawthorne

“The TV does not force you to watch it. The internet does not force you to log on.” Esther Dyson